Market Outlook #250 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog


Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)

Whats up, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s publish, I will likely be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I may even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.

That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have a fantastic Christmas and a Joyful New 12 months and I’ll see you in 2024.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Every day:

btcusddaily

Worth: $40,971

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we will see that worth spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to contemplate is the opportunity of inside week failure, which might type if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. On condition that we offered off from final week’s open into the shut again beneath $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the probability of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that state of affairs, we’d anticipate final week’s excessive to get taken out out and worth to seemingly proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nonetheless, worth closes the week beneath $40.3k, this state of affairs is invalidated and I might anticipate a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.

Dropping into the each day, we will see that each day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut beneath the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nonetheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not significantly satisfied by it as of but. If we have been to now shut the each day by way of $40k, that seems to be far more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the main stage beneath that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nevertheless, if we will proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I might search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do suppose we proceed to push larger into $48k…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Every day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Every day:

ethbtcdaily

Worth: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that worth retraced the entire good points of the prior weekly growth final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed help at $2172. Worth depraved beneath the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as help, with the pair closing again above $2172. Actually, that is very a lot giving combined indicators: now we have erasure of the earlier week’s good points following growth past yearly highs, however now we have a sweep of the weekly low into main help too. Mainly, chop continues. What I’m taking a look at right here is the place we will proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I believe now we have the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nonetheless, we shut the week beneath $2137, I believe we’re more likely to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Wanting on the each day, we will see how each day construction seems to be set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut beneath $2137, and if that’s confirmed we will anticipate $2036 to be examined later this week, however with far more help down round $1850. Nevertheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I believe shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that worth continues to cut round between help at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There’s little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. Once we break and shut both facet of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.


Casper Community:

CSPR/USD

Every day:

csprusd

CSPR/BTC

Every day:

csprbtc

Worth: $0.038 (92 satoshis)

Ideas: On condition that each pairs look just about similar right here for CSPR, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.

Taking a look at CSPR/USD, we will see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and beneath $0.055, apart from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this 12 months. We have now bullish construction right here on the each day however have offered off from prior help up close to the prime quality, with worth now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as help. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed help at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I might anticipate to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If this can be a venture you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I might take into account this nearly as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here may very well be as tight at $0.031; closing beneath that will invalidate all of this latest construction and we’d seemingly return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Wanting forward, the disbelief part is apparent – shut above $0.073 and I believe this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.


TriasLab:

TRIAS/USD

Every day:

triasusd

TRIAS/BTC

Every day:

triasbtc

Worth: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)

Ideas: Once more, given how comparable these pairs look right here, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair, because the construction can be a bit cleaner.

Taking a look at TRIAS/USD, we will see that worth was in a protracted interval of growth off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation beneath $4.15, faking out above that stage as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA performing as help and worth then reclaiming the 200dMA as help in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that stage and most just lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking recent yearly highs by way of $5. Given this market construction, I might completely not be fading this, as an alternative contemplating this seemingly the start of the subsequent main leg larger for TRIAS. If we will now maintain above $4.15, I might anticipate $6.40 to provide manner and worth to make its manner in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the subsequent native high kinds.


Morpheus Community:

MNW/USD

Weekly:

mnwusdweekly

Every day:

mnwusddaily

MNW/BTC

Weekly:

mnwbtcweekly

Every day:

mnwbtcdaily

Worth: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MNW/USD on the weekly, we will see that worth continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected beneath the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior help ~$1.46. We’re at the moment discovering help above $0.94, as has been the case since late final 12 months, however to be sincere this isn’t a very engaging long-term chart at current. We have now worth discovering help above the 200wMA in Nov final 12 months, then rallying to recent yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the good points again into the 200wMA after which rallying far more weakly off that very same help into the trendline. If that $0.94 help goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at the moment your most vital stage. Till it will get a weekly shut by way of that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be sincere – significantly better alternatives available in the market.

Taking a look at MNW/BTC, we will see that the pair could be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with recent lows on the newest break and shut beneath 3264 satoshis. Worth is now sat in no man’s land, with main help beneath close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 stage. There’s additionally no signal simply but of pattern exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how just lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), it will likely be some time but earlier than this one absolutely bottoms out; while most of its worth capitulation seems to have occurred, we could have to see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.


Cellframe:

CELL/USD

Every day:

cellusd

CELL/BTC

Every day:

cellbtc

Worth: $0.19 (475 satoshis)

Ideas: Once more, very like a few different tokens on this publish, CELL’s pairs look very comparable right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can be what I’m basing my long-term place on.

So, taking a look at CELL/USD, we will see that worth has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed help above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend now we have been consolidating above all-time lows and beneath $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not absolutely allotted I might be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation can be recent all-time lows, the place I might minimize and look forward to a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market situations I believe we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…


Altcoin Market Cap:

ALT/USD

Weekly:

total3usd

ALT/BTC

Weekly:

total3btc

Market Cap: $441.2bn

Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we will see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, just lately rallying again by way of the 200wMA, consolidating above it as help after which pushing by way of multi-year resistance at $413bn. We have now pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating throughout the prior weekly vary. I might anticipate to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there’s nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we will now maintain above that $400bn space, I might anticipate the subsequent squeeze to open up a wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t a resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior help close to $590bn – over 25% larger from right here. That’s the place I might anticipate extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is turning into hope.

Taking a look at ALT/BTC, we will see that regardless of some good points in Greenback values of alts – and large good points on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – now we have largely been trending decrease in opposition to BTC for over a 12 months. Most just lately, alts depraved beneath help at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with pattern exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we will reclaim 11.4mn as help right here, I believe that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary help up close to 13.3mn BTC.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate certainly one of 2023!

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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