Market Outlook #249 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog


Market Outlook #249 (eleventh December 2023)

Hiya, and welcome to the 249th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I will likely be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Optimism, Alchemix, Altered State Machine and Raini.

As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Day by day:

btcusddaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that final week closed at recent yearly highs, by $42k resistance on rising quantity. Value closed out the week simply shy of $44k and early buying and selling this week has seen worth dump again beneath $42k however maintain above $39.7k as assist, pushing up from that space again in direction of $42k, the place it’s presently sat. Taking a look at this, there may be little or no to recommend any slowdown, notably after final week’s shut by that confluence of resistance. While we proceed to carry above $39.7k this week, I feel we see this consolidation round $42k result in additional enlargement subsequent week into the 61.8% retracement degree and prior resistance at $48k, the place it’s possible we begin to type an area high. If, nonetheless, this sell-off continues later this week and we shut the week again beneath $39.7k, it’s possible the native high has fashioned right here and we are able to search for additional draw back subsequent week into $36k to retest all that prior resistance as assist; beneath that degree, we filter all of the untapped lows into $33k. That’s the roadmap from each views going into 2024.

Turning to the every day, we are able to see that worth bought off sharply yesterday in one thing of a mini liquidation cascade, taking it from up close to $44k down into $40k, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating proper beneath that $42k degree. At current, $42k is every day resistance, so reclaiming that over the following day or two would recommend an extra restoration of that cascade and certain a march to recent highs from there; if, nonetheless, $42k continues to behave as resistance this week, we could have additional to fall but earlier than discovering a backside, with $39.6k but untested – a second leg decrease into that degree adopted by a $42k reclaim could be a pleasant backside formation to search for longs. As talked about above, till we shut the upper timeframes beneath $39.6k, I don’t suppose this uptrend is completed fairly but. And above $45k there may be solely air into $48k.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Day by day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Day by day:

ethbtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see that worth closed firmly by resistance at $2170 final week, pushing as excessive as $2400 earlier than closing at $2350 on good quantity. We had been inches shy of that $2425 degree however worth has rejected that resistance early this week, clearing out the prior weekly low into prior resistance turned assist at $2170 and bouncing off it. If we are able to now maintain above that degree, that appears very very like a little bit flush earlier than enlargement past the 38.2% fib and reclaimed resistance at $2426, with $2650 the following degree of curiosity above that. If we shut the weekly again beneath $2170, I might anticipate $1850 to be retested earlier than a backside is discovered, the place there may be loads of confluence. Turning to the every day, we are able to see how the pair depraved proper into that prior resistance cluster earlier than bouncing onerous yesterday, so holding above $2137 over the following day or two is paramount for this construction to stay legitimate as resistance turned assist; begin closing again inside these resistances and the image seems to be much less fairly, with a load of untapped lows seen earlier than that $1850 degree comes into view, the place the 200dMA can also be sat…

Trying now at ETH/BTC, final week retested 0.051 as assist and held as soon as once more, bouncing off that to shut at 0.0537, however remaining firmly capped by 0.0551 as resistance. As talked about final week, the image could be very clear right here: beneath 0.051 we take out 0.04877 earlier than discovering a backside; and above 0.0551 and the 200wMA we pattern in direction of trendline resistance. No have to make it any extra difficult than that. An extended-term reversal solely turns into excessive chance as soon as we flip that multi-year trendline into assist, in my view.


Polygon:

MATIC/USD

Weekly:

maticusdweekly

Day by day:

maticusddaily

MATIC/BTC

Weekly:

maticbtcweekly

Day by day:

maticbtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that worth bounced off that 200wMA final week and rallied again into assist turned resistance at $0.92, closing proper at that confluence of resistance. Early this week, the pair has bought off, holding above the 200wMA and now sat in no man’s land inside the prior weekly vary. Till we get a weekly shut above $0.93, we are able to’t make sure of additional enlargement / pattern continuation, however given the construction right here and the response off the 200wMA I’m leaning in direction of a breakout quickly. If we drop into the every day, we are able to see that worth additionally held above the 200dMA, front-running it as assist earlier than reversing. So long as we now type a higher-low above $0.77, I might anticipate the following crack at $0.93 to provide manner and for the pair to then increase in direction of $1.30 within the coming weeks.

Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see that worth rallied off of assist final week, wicking in direction of 1717 satoshis earlier than closing the week at highs round 2100. This can be a promising signal for bulls, and if we are able to now maintain above 2000 I might anticipate the vary to get crammed in in direction of the 200wMA and prior assist turned resistance at 2450. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how worth faked out above the 200dMA earlier than retracing into that assist cluster and now turning every day construction bullish on the latest bounce. Acceptance above 2100 on the every day right here is essential, as that might make it very possible we break past the 200dMA once more, and normally the second breakout from a bottoming formation just isn’t a fakeout, so we might anticipate to see 2450 satoshis adopted by 2950.


Uniswap:

UNI/USD

Weekly:

uniusdweekly

Day by day:

uniusddaily

UNI/BTC

Weekly:

unibtcweekly

Day by day:

unibtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with UNI/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that worth poked above $6.30 final week, pushing in direction of $7.50 earlier than closing again close to $6.60. We positively have bullish construction right here however UNI stays inside a 580-day vary, having spent a lot of 2023 chopping round above vary assist and beneath $7.50. From right here, I want to see this space round $6.30 maintain as assist and worth to shut the weekly by $7.50 later in December; that for me is the start of the following cycle for UNI, given how that degree has capped the pair since September 2022. Above it, I feel we take out the $9.90 excessive and proceed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at $13.87 earlier than discovering any significant resistance. Trying on the every day, on this timeframe it’s key we maintain above $5.65 as reclaimed assist; a pleasant wick beneath $5.84 into that degree adopted by a reclaim of $6.30 later within the week could be a very nice sign for additional upside, in my opinion.

Turning to UNI/BTC, we are able to see that worth is now consolidating above multi-year assist at 14k satoshis after deviating beneath it. While this degree continues to carry as reclaimed assist, I feel it seems to be very very like the underside has fashioned right here and we are able to anticipate a transfer by 17.5k satoshis to return sooner slightly than later; above that, weekly construction turns bullish and I might expect outperformance for UNI all the best way again in direction of that 26.7k satoshis space. Dropping into the every day we are able to see how the 200dMA continues to cap the rallies just lately, so a transfer by 17.5k would additionally flip that into assist, offering confluence for additional upside.


Optimism:

OP/USD

Day by day:

opusddaily

OP/BTC

Day by day:

opbtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: As Optimism has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.

Taking a look at OP/USD, we are able to see that worth could be very a lot in an uptrend, having marked out a backside in June and a macro higher-low in October, then breaking by trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, flipping the 200dMA as assist and persevering with to tear increased. Final week noticed the pair push by the $2 space as resistance into reclaimed resistance proper round $2.40, beneath which it presently sits. That is arguably a very powerful resistance on the chart at current, with it being each the 61.8% fib retracement of the bear market and the double high from 2022. Settle for above this degree as reclaimed assist and I feel we get a parabolic transfer in direction of all-time highs from there, with a excessive chance that this second bull cycle takes OP into worth discovery past $3.30 given the market circumstances.


Alchemix:

ALCX/USD

Day by day:

alcxusd

ALCX/BTC

Day by day:

alcxbtc

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: As each pairs look equivalent right here for ALCX, let’s deal with the Greenback pair.

Taking a look at ALCX/USD, we are able to see that worth had fashioned a long-term backside at $16.42, earlier than breaching it to type a double backside at $13.46 in 2023. Subsequently, in August 2023, we deviated beneath that double backside, fashioned a recent all-time low at $10.27 after which consolidated for a couple of months between that low and prior assist turned resistance, additionally discovering resistance on the 200dMA, above which the pair had not discovered assist (past a short fakeout) for a number of years. Value has since emerged from this vary, reclaiming each $13.46 and $16.42 as assist, turning every day construction bullish. Concurrently, we now have turned the 200dMA into assist, above which a higher-low has fashioned. Value rallied from that low into $26.44 final week earlier than rejecting and now retracing again into prior resistance at $18.70. So long as the pair can proceed to carry above $16.42 right here, I might anticipate to see continuation increased, as that is very a lot a classical cyclical backside at current and any transfer above $26 will possible be the start of the following bull cycle for ALCX. For targets on spot baggage, $73 could be the primary space of curiosity after the hole fill, adopted by $178 after which $478 as main resistance.


Altered State Machine:

ASTO/USD

Day by day:

astousd

ASTO/BTC

Day by day:

astobtc

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Once more, as ASTO has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.

Taking a look at ASTO/USD, we are able to see that worth has concluded its first bear cycle, dropping 97% of its worth from the all-time highs at $0.40. Value backside in October at $0.014 earlier than starting a pointy rally since, reclaiming a number of ranges of assist and shutting firmly above the 200dMA, which acted as assist in November. Value is now sandwiched between assist turned resistance at $0.052 and reclaimed assist at $0.037, sitting marginally above the 360dMA at current. So long as the $0.037 space holds as assist, I feel the construction right here is okay regardless of the divergence in momentum; shut beneath that and we possible retraced again in direction of $0.029 to seek out assist once more, with $0.024 because the golden alternative for a spot entry if that comes. If this construction does maintain and worth merely consolidates inside this vary, I might look to purchase spot on acceptance above $0.052, as there may be mainly no resistance above that for one more 100% rally, and no resistance past $0.13 all the best way into $0.25. I feel when this one rips, it’ll actually rip, with recent highs past $0.40 possible in 2024.


RAINI:

RAINI/USD

Weekly:

rainiusdweekly

Day by day:

rainiusddaily

RAINI/BTC

Weekly:

rainibtcweekly

Day by day:

rainibtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with RAINI/USD, we are able to see that worth closed final week at recent yearly highs for 2023, marginally by resistance at $0.05. We have now since continued to push increased early this week with $0.05 performing as assist. If that degree can proceed to behave as assist this week, there isn’t any actual resistance on the weekly timeframe again into the 38.2% fib of the bear market and reclaimed resistance at $0.08-$0.088. That will be the place I might anticipate an area high to start to type, from which we could get the primary main correction for Raini of this new cycle. If, nonetheless, we deviate above $0.05 this week after which shut again beneath it, it’s possible the native high is in right here and I might search for a higher-low to type above $0.035 earlier than continuation into that vary above. Finally, that is one I’m seeking to maintain for a lot of extra months but, with expectations of recent all-time highs past $0.20 in 2024, notably given the Beam narrative.

Turning to RAINI/BTC, we are able to see that worth is presently sat proper round that 38.2% fib however there isn’t an historic degree right here for confluence. I might anticipate 156 satoshis to be retested as resistance if we are able to maintain above 121 right here. Past that degree, recent yearly highs are on the best way by 183, with 230 satoshis the extent to observe for past that. Once more, if you happen to’re in a spot place like me, I’m now sitting on my palms till we hit 280 satoshis as main resistance, promoting a partial after which letting the remainder experience for recent all-time highs.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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